FMCG sector revenue is expected to reach GEL 23.3bn in 2024, reflecting a 9.5% y/y increase. Revenue growth is primarily driven by increased demand, with minimal impact from price changes. Notably, branded retail chains are growing at a faster pace (+14.9%y/y to GEL 9.5bn in 2024E) compared to other formats (+6.1%y/y to GEL 13.8bn in 2024E). Branded retail chains currently hold 40.7% of the market share, up from 38.8% in 2023, with dynamic growth expected to continue.
Revenue of branded retail chains expected at GEL 9.5bn in 2024, up 14.9% y/y. This growth in revenue is primarily driven by geographic expansion, with 500 new stores added in 2024, bringing the total number of branded retail chain stores to over 4,000. Notably, the number of branded retail chain stores in Tbilisi and the regions is now equal, although sales per store in Tbilisi are, on average, about 30% higher than in the regions. As a result, Tbilisi accounts for 56.7% of total branded chain revenue.
Daily Group has emerged as the new market leader, capturing a 27.6% share of the branded retail chains market and a 9.8% share of the total FMCG market. In 2024, several companies merged to form Daily Group Holding, including Foodmart Ltd (with brands Spar, Ioli, and Kalata), Daily Ltd, Gvirila Retail Ltd (brand name Gvirila), and Retail Group Ltd (Magniti). As a result, Daily Group now owns over 1,600 stores out of a total of 4,000, accounting for 39% of the branded retail store market's total store count. In 10M24, Daily Group led the market with a 27.6% share of branded retail chains revenue, followed by Nikora with 17.0% and 2-Nabiji with 16.8%. Together, these top three companies account for 61.3% of the branded retail chains market revenue, with the remaining share spread across approximately 40 smaller retail chains.
We expect FMCG sector revenue to grow at an average rate of 8.0% over 2025-28, primarily driven by increased purchasing power. Branded retail chains will continue to expand at a faster pace than other formats, supported by geographic expansion, assortment and format diversification, and other strategic developments. We forecast an average annual growth rate of 14.8% for branded retail chains over 2025-28 (compared to 24.5% in 2021-24), which will result in their market share increasing from 40.7% to 52.0% by 2028.
