Commodities Monthly Outlook - November 2023

Submitted by manager@gt.ge on Tue, 12/12/2023 - 12:02

In November 2023:

Brent oil price was down 5.2% m/m. Despite the additional supply cuts by OPEC+, investors were left unsatisfied by lack of clarity whether they will be fully implemented. Consequently, oil continued its sixth straight weekly drop.

Natural gas price was up 10.8% m/m. Despite the monthly gain, it posted substantial decline in the second half of the month, losing 12.3% in two weeks due to larger-than-expected supply and mild weather forecasts.

Ammonium nitrate price was down 12.3% m/m. Fertilizers are expected to trade in a narrow range this winter with different factors offsetting each other.

Wheat price was up 5.8% m/m. Key driver of the rally that started earlier in October was the worry over supplies.

Copper price was up 4.5% m/m. Potential low supply from the two major copper producers (Panama and Peru) may send market into deficit in 2024.

European ferrosilicon was down by 0.3% m/m, while its Chinese counterpart decreased by 1.5% m/m. Low global prices were reflected in Georgian foreign trade, with 68.0% y/y decrease in ferroalloy exports.

Gold price was up 2.6% m/m. It rallied 11.4% since the beginning of October and settled at the highest level since April 2023. Anticipated cuts of interest rates and possibly weaker U.S. dollar fuel gains of the precious metal.
 

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