In May 2024:
Brent oil price was down 7.1% m/m to US$ 81.6 per barrel. Sell-off in April and early May was driven by the concerns over health of the global economy and oil demand. Other key topics for the traders included OPEC+ meeting and any early signs of oil demand due to summer driving season.
Natural gas price was up 20.4% m/m. The rally was fueled by traders betting on rising gas prices. Net long positions on European gas benchmark – Dutch TTF rose to highest since February 2022 when Russia launched the full-scale war in Ukraine.
Gold price was up 1.8% m/m. Despite a modest growth, bullion continued its record-breaking rally and hit the highest level ever above US$ 2,400 per troy ounce. Continuous rise assures investors the driver is beyond traditional factors such as hedging risks and inflation. Although they still play an important role, much bigger effect is coming from the central bank buying and retail investors following the momentum.
Ammonium nitrate price was up 2.7% m/m. Market may witness another significant rise of natural gas price that is likely to impact the prices of nitrate fertilizers as well.
Wheat price was up 15.8% m/m. It marked a largest monthly gain since February 2022, when Russia launched full-scale war in Ukraine. This time around, both key global wheat exporters face severe weather challenges.
Copper price was up 0.2% m/m. The metal has rallied 30% during the spring and hit an all-time high of above US$ 11,000 per tonne in late May. Copper has pushed other base metals higher too. Net long positions in base metals on Comex and London Metal Exchange reached 2.6mn tonnes in May, up from only 556k tonnes in March.
Ferrosilicon - European ferrosilicon price was up 12.9% m/m, while its Chinese counterpart gained 3.8% m/m. Despite the growth, concerns remain about Chinese demand.
