Arrivals
In Mar-22, total international arrivals stood at 188,394 persons – up 236.9% y/y and accounting for 37% of 2019 level. This growth was predominantly driven by increase in tourist arrivals (up 210.6% y/y), recovering at 49% of 2019 level. Same-day trips remain low recovering at only 16% of 2019 level due to persisting regulations of neighboring countries on a cross-border travel. Notably tourism arrivals (reported by GNTA) capture only visitors leaving Georgia in reporting month and do not include migrants, moving to Georgia since Russia-Ukraine war started. Top country by arrivals was Turkey (22.5% of total), followed by Russia (12.0% of total), and Armenia (11.7% of total). While low, number of arrivals from Israel, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Saudi Arabia, and Uzbekistan surpassed 2019 levels.
Revenues
Tourism revenues stood at US$ 175mn in Mar-22 (up 5.9x y/y and accounting for 71.3% of 2019 level) – highest recovery since tourism resumed. Markedly, this tourism revenue figure captures also migrants impact (from Russia, Belarus, Ukraine), arriving in Georgia after Russia-Ukraine war started. Exact number of migrants is not available, however these migrants provide additional opportunity for Georgian economy in different sectors like trade, real estate, IT, etc. and their impact is already visible in increased prices on real estate market. Notably, due to migrant flow these 2 statistics – visitors and revenues - are not reflecting the same trends now. Russia accounted for 20% of Mar-22 tourism revenues, followed by Belarus (17%), Turkey (9%), Israel (9%), and EU (8%). In 2022, we expect tourism revenues to recover to 75% of 2019 level in a baseline scenario, but we also do not rule out faster recovery (85%) considering migrants’ impact.
Migrant impact: Airbnb market almost fully recovered in Mar-22
Migrant impact is best reflected in Airbnb demand spike, as migrants most likely booked Airbnb apartments upon arrival before finding longer-term options for renting. Airbnb demand was highest in Tbilisi in Mar-22 since the beginning of the pandemic. Market almost fully recovered - rental demand in Mar-22 stood at 91% of Mar-19. Sudden surge in demand resulted in unprecendently elevated occupancy rates (81% for median properties) and prices (US$ 36 per night for median properties) in Mar-22. Furthermore, rates was up 14% y/y in long-term rental market also in Mar-22. Airbnb demand surged in Batumi also in Mar-22. Rental demand almost doubled in Mar-22 (405% of Mar-19 levels) compared to Feb-22 (228% of Feb-19 levels).